Each year, employers and foreign national professionals ask the same question:
What are my chances of being selected in the H-1B lottery?
With recent changes to the H-1B selection process, the answer now depends more than ever on the offered wage level of the position.
The H-1B Cap Basics
The annual H-1B cap remains:
- 65,000 visas under the regular cap
- 20,000 additional visas for individuals holding a U.S. master’s degree or higher
Because registrations typically exceed the 85,000 available visas, USCIS conducts a selection process.
In the most recent completed lottery (FY 2026), USCIS received approximately 343,981 eligible registrations and selected 118,660 beneficiaries. This resulted in an overall selection rate of roughly 35% — about 1 in 3 applicants.
How the System Used to Work
Under the prior system, selection was largely random.
In recent years, overall selection rates generally ranged between 25% and 35%, depending on total registration volume. All properly submitted registrations had roughly equal odds.
The New Weighted Selection System
Beginning with the FY 2027 cap season, USCIS implemented a weighted selection system based on the prevailing wage level of the offered position.
Under the new system, registrations receive multiple entries depending on wage level:
- Level I (Entry Wage) – 1 entry → approximately 15% estimated selection probability
- Level II – 2 entries → approximately 31% estimated selection probability
- Level III – 3 entries → approximately 46% estimated selection probability
- Level IV (Highest Wage Level) – 4 entries → approximately 61% estimated selection probability
Higher wage levels now receive proportionally greater odds of selection.
What This Means for Employers and Candidates
Selection is no longer purely random.
The wage level assigned to the position now plays a critical role in determining the likelihood of selection. Other factors still matter, including qualification under the U.S. master’s cap and overall registration volume.
Bottom Line
Under the old system:
Selection odds were generally 25%–35%.
Under the new weighted system:
Selection odds may range from approximately 15% to over 60%, depending largely on the wage level of the position.
If you would like to evaluate a specific role and estimate its likely selection probability under the new system, please contact our office to discuss your H-1B strategy for this cap season.